FOURTH HILL DIGITAL // DYADIC PAIR: IRN <---> USA

[DYAD ID: IRN-USA] [365D BASELINE AFFINITY: -14.40] [30D TRAJECTORY: ▲ +0.22% (Converging)] [TIMESTAMP: 2026-08-21T20:15:02.9213965Z]

[01] MACRO BILATERAL INDICATORS

365-DAY BASELINE AFFINITY SCORE
-14.40
GDELT GKG Bilateral Moving Average
30-DAY TRAJECTORY SHIFT
▲ +0.22% (Converging)
30d Delta vs 365d Baseline
UNGA VOTING COHESION
22.0%
Source: UN General Assembly Voting Dataverse
MEDIA SENTIMENT ASYMMETRY
+0.56
Coverage Gap: IRN Press vs USA Press

[02] INTERACTIVE DUAL-NODE CORRIDOR MAP

[03] OVERALL AFFINITY SCORE DATA BREAKDOWN

The Overall Bilateral Affinity Score (-14.40) is a composite non-linear index calculated across 3 primary data vectors:

[DATA POINT 1] GDELT NEWS TONE & MEDIA SENTIMENT (40% WEIGHT)

  • 365-Day Baseline News Tone: [====........] -4.02
  • Recent 30-Day News Tone: [====........] -3.79
  • 30-Day Trajectory Shift: ▲ +0.22% (Converging)
  • 365-Day Monitored Dispatches: 465 indexed events
  • Media Sentiment Asymmetry: +0.56 (IRN Press vs USA Press)

High-frequency sentiment telemetry derived from GDELT Global Knowledge Graph v2.0 news monitoring. Evaluates real-time event reporting tone, public media sentiment, and short-term 30-day directional momentum relative to the 365-day moving average baseline.

[DATA POINT 2] UNGA VOTING CORRELATION (35% WEIGHT)

  • UNGA Roll-Call Cohesion: 22.0%
  • Diplomatic Alignment Rating: Low Alignment / Structural Friction Vector
  • Data Source: UN General Assembly Voting Dataverse

Structural geopolitical alignment metric based on official roll-call voting correlation matrices in the UN General Assembly. Reflects long-term sovereign voting cohesion, treaty alignment, and multilateral policy consensus between the two states.

[DATA POINT 3] UN COMTRADE BILATERAL TRADE FLOW (25% WEIGHT)

  • Annual Bilateral Trade Volume: $41.93 B USD
  • Economic Interaction Weight: 567.30
  • Data Source: UN Comtrade & World Bank Open Data

Bilateral commercial integration and supply chain linkage derived from UN Comtrade HS commodity flow data. High trade volume establishes structural economic interdependence, providing stabilizing resistance against temporary media sentiment volatility.

[04] CAMEO EVENT DISTRIBUTION & TONE BREAKDOWN

Top Indexed CAMEO Categories (365d Window)

  • [051] Event Code 051 — 19 events (Mean Tone: -3.53)
  • [112] Event Code 112 — 18 events (Mean Tone: -5.16)
  • [057] Event Code 057 — 16 events (Mean Tone: -4.35)
  • [040] Event Code 040 — 14 events (Mean Tone: -3.82)
  • [046] Event Code 046 — 14 events (Mean Tone: -3.18)

365-Day Baseline vs 30-Day Tone Comparison

365d Baseline Tone: [====...........] -4.02
Recent 30d Tone: [=====..........] -3.79

[05] VERIFIED GDELT DISPATCHES & SOURCE ATTRIBUTION

Top significant dispatches driving the relationship score over the last 30 days:

#1 GDELT Event #1316789969: Event Code 080 [2026-08-04 17:15:00]
Publisher: sydneysun.com | Avg Tone: -2.89 | Articles: 48
VERIFY SOURCE GROUND TRUTH →

[06] BILATERAL TRADE & COMMODITY SUMMARY (IRN <---> USA)

Direct 1-to-1 bilateral commercial exchange, export/import volumes, and trade balance specifically between IRN and USA:

BILATERAL EXCHANGE VOLUME
$41.93 B USD
UN Comtrade Direct Trade Flow (IRN <-> USA)
IRN EXPORTS TO USA
$22.22 B USD
USA Imports from IRN (12.7% of IRN Exports)
USA EXPORTS TO IRN
$19.71 B USD
IRN Imports from USA (0.6% of USA Exports)
BILATERAL NET TRADE BALANCE
$2.51 B USD
Net Bilateral Surplus in favor of IRN

What IRN Exports to USA (USA Imports)

  • [EXPORTS TO USA] Agricultural Products & Cereals
  • [EXPORTS TO USA] Mineral Ores & Concentrates
  • [EXPORTS TO USA] Energy & Raw Materials
  • [EXPORTS TO USA] Manufactured Goods

What USA Exports to IRN (IRN Imports)

  • [EXPORTS TO IRN] Refined Petroleum & Crude
  • [EXPORTS TO IRN] Aerospace & Commercial Aircraft
  • [EXPORTS TO IRN] Integrated Circuits & Chips
  • [EXPORTS TO IRN] Automobiles & Motor Vehicles
  • [EXPORTS TO IRN] Soybeans & Agricultural Commodities
Data Provenance: UN Comtrade HS Commodity Matrix / World Bank Bilateral Data